Candletalk

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FX VolContracts - Realized Volatility Futures - Launching February 6th

CME (03.02.11) - CME Group will be launching a set of FX Realized Volatility futures, called FX VolContracts, in major currency pairs, starting with the euro. The EUR/USD 1-month and 3-month Realized Volatility futures will launch on Sunday, February 6 (trade date Monday, February 7).

These are the first futures contracts that offer direct trading of FX volatility, and the first that settle to realized rather than implied volatility. They offer a standardized, listed and transparent means of controlling price risk. In addition, they will provide spread opportunities against CME's listed FX futures and options products.

FX VolContracts will be offered under a license agreement with VolX, which controls a patent on VolContracts. The contracts will be cash-settled to either a 1- or 3-month historical or "realized" volatility calculated by reference to daily price movements in major CME currency futures. The realized volatility calculation is based on a simple standard deviation formula. The contracts are valued at $1,000 x the computed realized volatility for the specific time period.

For additional information and to view contract specs, visit http://www.cmegroup.com/fxvolcontracts

For additional information on CME FX Products, visit http://www.cmegroup.com/fx

View free real-time prices on CME FX futures and options at http://www.cmegroup.com/equivalents

(Quelle: CME)

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In den USA stecken die meisten Bundesstaaten tief im Schuldenschlamassel, einige stehen sogar vor dem Bankrott.
Der US-Bundesstaat Nevada rechnet für 2012 mit einem Haushaltsloch von 1,5 Milliarden Dollar. Entscheidend ist aber, dass Nevada 45,2 Prozent seines Budgets nicht finanzieren kann.

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Der Tag an dem den USA endgueltig das Genick gebrochen wird ist wenn Rohstoffe in anderen Waehrungen den USD gehandlet werden koennen, Saddam wollte das schon mal - Das Ende der Geschichte kennen wir. Es ist nur noch 1 Frage der Zeit und wenn die USA ihre Rohstoffe mit richtigem Geld statt wertloser, selbstgedruckten USD kaufen muessen bricht das Kartenhaus endgueltig zusammen.

Quoted from "Perfect Trader"

Nachdem ich ja schon im Post 6468 zugab, den Nutzen der ganzen Spitzelei-Maschinerie für den User bei Facebook & Co., der offenbar gar nicht merkt, was er dort selber für hoch-karätige Profile über sich erstellt (nicht nur mit seinen Stamm-Daten sondern noch vielmehr mit den Like-Clicks) habe ich mal einen jüngeren Kollegen gefragt, der zu der Generation der Leute gehört, die sowas (übrigens völlig unzutreffend) als viel ungefährlicher ansehen.

Er sagte mir, daß der Haupt-Nutzen für den End-Nutzer wohl darin bestünde, daß er sich voll dem Trend zur "Online-Prostitution" hingeben könnte, womit er meinte, daß jeder mit völlig belanglosem Dreck über sein Privatleben die Welt kontaminiert. Twitter zählte er übrigens auch dazu.

Quoted from "Perfect Trader"

daß jeder mit völlig belanglosem Dreck über sein Privatleben die Welt kontaminiert

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ZURICH (Dow Jones)--Credit Suisse Group (CS) Chairman Hans-Ulrich Doerig said Monday the era of Swiss banks basing their business on harboring undeclared funds is "over," as he urged Switzerland to become nimbler in reacting to upstart economies who could compete with the tiny Alpine nation.
"[Switzerland should pursue] a tax-compliant client strategy of a modern financial center, but with protection of privacy," Doerig told an audience in Zurich.

January 24, 2011 12:53 ET (17:53 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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By Andy Xie
A DOW JONES COLUMN

If China and Japan stick together, they can play a critical role in preventing the euro zone from suffering unnecessary economic hardship due to financial market panic and, by extension, supporting the euro as an alternative reserve currency to the dollar.
China and Japan are currently supporting the euro zone by purchasing government bonds that the market shuns today. The two countries have $4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves and are capable of bridging the liquidity problems some euro-zone economies are facing.
What China and Japan can do is to stop market panic from leading some otherwise-viable economies down a vicious spiral of rising interest rates and debt. Economies that aren't viable in the first place shouldn't be helped.
China and Japan's actions help themselves in two ways. First, the euro is the only alternative to the dollar for global trade, commodity pricing and storing foreign exchange reserves. If the euro falls apart, the U.S. Federal Reserve will be further emboldened to pursue inflation to decrease the U.S.'s leverage or indebtedness at the expense of dollar holders. China and Japan hold vast dollar assets.
Second, Europe is the largest trading partner for China and the third largest for Japan. It is in both economies' interest for Europe to avoid a vicious cycle and remain a healthy trading partner.
The watchword for monitoring developed economies is debt and, for developing economies, inflation. The market is panicking over the sovereign debt situation in some euro-zone economies and is demanding high interest rates for rolling over their debts or providing new money for financing their deficits. When the interest rates rise above some level, an otherwise healthy debtor can go bankrupt. This element of self-fulfilling prophecy is a major force in speculative attacks against a company or country.
China's recent pledge to support debt issuances by Spain and Portugal, and Japan's commitment to purchasing one-fifth of the debt issuance by the European Financial Stability Facility, or EFSF, is not enough. China and Japan should work closely together in their European Project. They have common interests.
In the wake of the global economic crisis, there are observable divergences in the types of responses by developed economies. The challenge is to bring down leverage.
The real leverage in the developed economies increased by 50% in the decade before the financial crisis. Hence, one can argue that they need to decrease the leverage by one-third to normalize. How fast it should happen depends on how dependent an economy is on foreign capital. And in what way it can be achieved is sometimes a policy choice.
Many economists think that Greece and Ireland are suffering because they don't have their own central bank. This is an erroneous observation. Small economies cannot use monetary policy to deal with a financial crisis with a large foreign debt component. When the crisis hits, foreigners want their money back. One must tighten the belt to pay up or at least to convincingly demonstrate its ability to do so soon. Printing money will surely lead to currency collapse and foreign debt impossible to service, making bankruptcy inevitable.
The euro zone is pursuing belt tightening to address their debt overhang in general. It is not due to market pressure. The Maastricht Treaty of 1993, which laid the foundation for the euro, implanted the DNA of responsible fiscal and monetary policies in the euro zone. The upper limit on the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP, though violated frequently, centers policy conversations on the "right" level. Further, the mandate for the ECB is just price stability, unlike the dual mandate of price stability and employment maximization for the Fed.
The U.S. is pursuing a different strategy to bring down its leverage. It is trying to grow out of it. It is adding more and more monetary and fiscal stimulus to accelerate the economy. Even though the approach leads to rising indebtedness, its advocates believe that the economy would grow faster on its own and bring the leverage down and employment up on its own.
The U.S.'s approach hasn't worked well so far, although the dollar has been firm since the Obama Administration introduced a new tax cut package. The dollar index has hovered tightly around 80 lately. It was as low as 74 mid last year. Its long cycle high was over 120 in 2002 and low was 71 in 2008. The dollar's strength is due to market's optimism over the U.S.'s economic growth outlook for 2011. The double kick from QE 2 and the Obama tax cut could lead to strong growth.
While euro's fundamentals are much better than dollar, market panic could push the euro zone down a vicious cycle and make euro crash self-fulfilling. The euro zone doesn't have a central fiscal authority. The small economies in the zone are vulnerable to market pressure. When the market panics, it pushes interest rates sky high and makes the borrower bankrupt. If some buyer is willing to step in to replace the market, it gives the borrower time to restructure. The result could be a happy situation for both borrowers and lenders.
Supporting the euro is in China and Japan's best interest. They hold more dollar assets than anyone else and have a strong vested interest to safeguard the dollar's value. The only viable alternative to the dollar is the euro. If it is discredited, the Fed will be emboldened to print more money.
Down the road, China and Japan should work with OPEC countries to prepare for the post-dollar world. The three hold most dollar assets in the world. The key step for replacing the dollar is for oil to be priced in euros. China, Japan, and OPEC should begin discussions on trading oil in euros.
It's time to prepare for the post-dollar world.

Andy Xie is a freelancer for MarketWatch.
January 21, 2011 09:40 ET (14:40 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.