Yen

      Offenbar Panik gestern. Barclay's hat den Yen zeitweise sogar aus dem System genommen. Das ist ja besonders vertrauenserweckend.
      --Yen surge Wednesday threw dealer banks into "panic mode"
      -- Prices swept wider for all banks
      -- Barclays Capital pulled yen prices from Barx trading systems, clients unable to trade yen
      -- Bank jitters may have contributed to yen's record-breaking jump


      LONDON (Dow Jones)--U.K. bank Barclays Capital (BCS, BARC.LN)pulled yen prices off its Barx dealing system for a short period Wednesday, as the Japanese currency fizzed to its strongest levels on record, a person familiar with the situation said Thursday. In a spectacular move, the dollar collapsed against the yen at 2100 GMT Wednesday, sinking 4% to hit a record low of Y76.25.
      Most big banks' systems functioned normally during that hectic period, albeit with a markedly wider spread between where the banks were prepared to buy and sell the currency--a feature that reflected extreme market stress and uncertainty. But Barx was unavailable, a Switzerland-based user said.
      "All of the banks showed wide spreads--they went into panic mode," the Barx user said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
      "But I use six banks, and of them, only Barx was down," he said, adding that he was unable to trade yen on the system for an hour.
      A person familiar with the situation said Barx didn't experience any technical difficulties, but the bank's traders decided to pull prices from the system to protect themselves during hectic trading conditions at what is normally a quiet time of day.
      Barclays Capital said in a statement: "Due to unprecedented volume in yen based currency pairs, we extended our normal daily reset time period between NY/Asia time zones. Subsequent to this, we maintained superior yen pricing through a period of extremely high volume without interruption."
      Barclays Capital is the world's third-biggest currencies-dealing bank, according to benchmark data from financial publishing firm Euromoney. Its Barx system is well respected in the industry and is used heavily, particularly by smaller banks and by hedge funds. Rival Deutsche Bank (DB, DBK.XE)--the world's biggest currencies-dealing bank--said its systems operated normally throughout the period, and that it was trading electronically and by voice throughout the yen's surge.
      Citigroup (C)--the world's fourth-largest dealer--said its trading systems operated normally throughout, and it didn't pull its prices off its electronic platforms. The Barx user said all banks pushed out their spreads as the yen shot higher. Banks were showing prices for trades in the dollar against the yen with a spread of some 50 or 100 so-called pips--the tiny increments of currencies prices.
      In normal trading, spreads are around 0.8 to one pip wide. These wider spreads, particularly in combination with the Barx outage, "definitely" contributed to the jerky rush higher in the Japanese currency, he said. The yen has been climbing markedly since last week's earthquake and tsunami, in a shift that reflects expectations Japanese investors and companies will bring funds home from abroad. The yen is also considered a safe retreat in times of stress, and has therefore been attracting even greater demand as the country battles radiation leaks at the Fukushima nuclear power station.
      The trigger for the rapid ascent late Wednesday is unclear, although anecdotal evidence suggests that retail investors may have been forced out of unsuccessful negative bets on the yen. As they folded on those bets, the currency sprang higher, hitting a series of options and stop-loss orders to fuel a rapid run-up. The absence of Barx and gaping spreads on yen prices could not have helped to keep the market flowing smoothly.

      March 17, 2011 14:48 ET (18:48 GMT)
      Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
      Würde und Sein - sind allen gemein
      Wie du siehst ist die grosse Welle erst gegen 21:10 losgetreten worden. Entweder haben da Models auf Sell gestellt, oder es wurde (kann ja sein), händisch von einem big one etwas nachgeholfen und dann zogen die Models nach und die Lawine ward losgetreten. Was vor 21:10 war betrachte ich noch als normale Bewegung in der einfach das ATl geholt wurde.

      Roll over
      IB macht 15 Minuten Pause nach dem Roll over? Das braucht aber Mut einen solchen Anbieter zu wählen. Das ganze ist nichts anderes als das setzen eines Bits auf der DB und schon gehts weiter. Dauert 1 Sekunde während dem laufenden Betrieb. Aber kommt natürlich auf den Anbieter der Technik an.

      MS4 = Pivot MS4 (Monthly)
      Würde und Sein - sind allen gemein

      retep schrieb:


      Purri schrieb:

      Haha, genau zum/während des Roll-Over, wo die meisten nicht handeln können und keine Stops ausgeführt werden gehts fast 200 pip runter. Ich vermute, dass ist unten mit "cat & mouse games" gemeint.


      Ich würde behaupten gut getimed danach (10s Chart). Das ganze ging wohl auf MS4. Ist aber nur eine Vermutung da mir der Wert fehlt.

      In den 5 Minuten vor dem Rollover ist er knapp unter das ATL (79.60) gefallen. Zwischen 17:00 und 17:10 EST war er auf ca. 79.40 (zwischenzeitlich auch auf 79.25) laut meinen Charts.

      Ich könnte mir schon vorstellen, dass das Rolling hier eine Rolle gespielt hat. IB zum Beispiel hat 15 Minuten Pause (danach war der Markt bei ca. 78.00), und dann werden Stops die zwischen 79.60 und 78 liegen, alle aufeinmal ausgeführt. Aber ehrlich gesagt hab ich keine Ahnung ob das Rolling auf den Pro-Platformen gleich funktioniert oder ob das dort anders läuft.

      Was ist MS4?
      Trader empfehlen Kopfschutz...
      --BOJ intervention threat keeps currency traders on edge
      --Flows light, spreads wide, particularly in yen

      LONDON (Dow Jones)--Concerns that the Bank of Japan may intervene to weaken the yen are making it unusually tough to complete trades in the currencies market Thursday, traders say.
      Flows are relatively light, and the gap between the prices where banks buy and sell currencies, especially the yen, is abnormally wide, as traders seek to protect themselves from shocks.
      "Yen traders everywhere have their crash helmets at the ready," one Citigroup trader said. Against the current backdrop it may be "difficult to transact 'normal' buy orders [in the dollar against the yen] without spooking the market... liquidity has obviously worsened, and spreads will reflect this," he added.
      Other London traders agreed that the wide spreads and thin trading conditions are unusually prevalent Thursday after the spectacular demand for the yen drove it to all-time highs against the dollar overnight. Japan's central bank had been expected to intervene on the Ministry of Finance's behalf, as the dollar reached the Y80 level, but it didn't. Now markets are on high alert for the possibility that the central bank may yet try to halt the yen's gains.
      The tensions in the currency market also come after telling comments from Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda Thursday. "Under thin market conditions there are various speculations and nervous movements," he said. "Based on this, I will closely watch the market situation."
      The strong yen makes Japanese exports more expensive at a particularly difficult time. Japan last intervened to weaken the yen in September 2010. A G7 teleconference on the situation in Japan is due at 2200 GMT and leading to some speculation of concerted intervention to weaken the yen from key central banks. Comments so far suggest Japanese officials believe speculators are to blame for the yen's current gains, not repatriation flows back into Japan as some market-watchers believe.
      At 1302 GMT, the dollar was trading at Y78.84 against the yen after hitting a low of Y76.25 overnight.

      March 17, 2011 09:28 ET (13:28 GMT)
      Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
      Würde und Sein - sind allen gemein

      Purri schrieb:

      Haha, genau zum/während des Roll-Over, wo die meisten nicht handeln können und keine Stops ausgeführt werden gehts fast 200 pip runter. Ich vermute, dass ist unten mit "cat & mouse games" gemeint.


      Ich würde behaupten gut getimed danach (10s Chart). Das ganze ging wohl auf MS4. Ist aber nur eine Vermutung da mir der Wert fehlt.
      Würde und Sein - sind allen gemein
      the pressure is growing for a downside snap

      Volltreffer. Hoffentlich ist jetzt die Lähmung raus. So ein paar hundert pips hin und her pro Tag wären schon was....



      Von der Kernschmelze zur Staatspleite? Quelle: Telepolis
      Werden zehnjährige Staatsanleihen Portugals, das im Verhältnis zu seiner Wirtschaftleistung nur gut ein Drittel der japanischen Staatsschulden aufweist, schon mit Zinsen über 7% gehandelt, zahlt Japan mit 1,25% sogar noch deutlich weniger als Deutschland. Doch die Zeit niedriger Zinsen geht vorbei, wie sich schon gestern gezeigt hat. Als sich Japan fast 10 Milliarden Euro auf dem Kapitalmarkt besorgt hat, musste es für Anleihen mit einer Laufzeit von 20 Jahren schon 2,13% Zinsen geboten werden.


      BTW: In jedem Sinne können da die Amis schon mal in ihre Zukunft schauen..
      Würde und Sein - sind allen gemein
      Ist ja schon. Ich habe 79.968.

      Meine Levels hat er bis auf einen geholt. Der ist aber dynamisch und wird, falls er heute noch einmal runter dreht, etwa bei 79.90 liegen. Heisst ich gehe davon aus das er heute (Today) das ATL wohl nicht mehr holt. Das spart er sich wohl für die Nachtsession (Tomorrow) oder den nächsten Slide auf. Dann könnte es aber hoch zu und her gehen.
      Würde und Sein - sind allen gemein
      Yeah baby yeahhhhh...

      Jetzt wirds interessant für die gaaaanz gaaaaanz mutigen unter uns........

      Wed Mar 16 17:12:29 CET 2011 JPY USDJPY threatening all-important 80.00 level - 80.07 the low so far. Watch for big stops below here - and perhaps the BoJ lurking.


      Für mich eine typische Situation heute in der das Sentiment eigentlich schon nach long zeigte. Aber die Models haben klar signalisiert das sie jetzt Fakten schaffen wollen (grüne Box). Nach 80 cross, sofort Reaktion vom Markt.



      Interessante Nachtsession voraus???
      Würde und Sein - sind allen gemein
      Wed Mar 16 10:52:23 CET 2011 JPY USDJPY pressure builds on the double low of 80.60, the street seems to be loaded up with stops below 80.50 and 80.00 and the authorities are no doubt aware. Expect more cat and mouse games ahead but the rallies remain anaemic and the pressure is growing for a downside snap.
      Würde und Sein - sind allen gemein

      retep schrieb:

      Irgendwo brodelt da etwas.....


      Der (erwartete) Event ist eingetroffen. Kurs bricht nach short aus. Fallhöhe zu 1995 sehr gering. Erstes Ziel 80.20 - 80. Ich gehe davon aus dass das ATL jetzt angegriffen wird. Habe Gestern in der ARD gehört das die G8 möglicherweise den Yen schwächen will um den Japanern zu helfen wieder auf die Beine zu kommen. Alleine mir fehlt der Glaube daran. Allerdings bei unter 80 dürfte die BOJ unruhig werden.

      Würde und Sein - sind allen gemein
      Achtung: ATL in Sicht...

      -Dollar could approach Y80, near its all-time low
      -Traders bet on more repatriation flows
      -Swift market reaction to quake by comparison with Kobe in 1995

      NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The dollar could soon approach the psychologically important 80 yen level, near a record low, on more repatriation flows into Japan after Friday's earthquake.
      The current strength in the yen against most major counterparts is likely because traders are betting that insurers with exposure to Japan and corporations with Japanese operations will eventually need to buy yen in large quantities to cover damages and pay out insurance claims, analysts said.
      "Speculation in advance of repatriation; that's what is driving the yen up right now," said Jeffrey Young, head of North American Foreign Exchange Research at Barclays Capital in New York.
      Analysts said a dollar fall below Y81.00, well below Friday's low of Y81.65, is possible early next week when the Bank of Japan is scheduled to hold an emergency meeting. Once the dollar slips below that level, traders would then look for a tumble toward Y80.00. That level has often been viewed as a tipping point where Japan might act to curb yen strength.
      Only once has the dollar dropped below Y80. That all-time low was a few months after a devastating earthquake struck Kobe, Japan, in 1995 forcing companies to convert foreign holdings back into yen.
      But market participants said the reaction to the Kobe earthquake could be a misleading barometer for how the yen could move after the latest earthquake because market technology and the flow of news have changed dramatically since 1995.
      Market reaction to Friday's earthquake is likely to be much swifter now than it was in 1995 because of the changes in markets and technology, said John McCarthy, managing director of foreign exchange at ING Capital Markets in New York.
      The dollar fell nearly 20% against the yen in the three months following the 1995 earthquake, but was back at pre-earthquake levels five months after that.
      McCarthy said the dollar could drop as low as Y81.50 Friday before it would likely get much support. Traders who took short positions during the initial moments after the earthquake when the dollar was strengthening are likely to close those out and book profits around Y81.50, McCarthy said. The dollar recently traded at Y81.92.
      Currency trading can be particularly volatile in the aftermath of such an enormous natural disaster as traders try to figure out the longer term effects of damages. That was the case Friday and such volatility could continue into the coming week.
      Immediately after the earthquake, the dollar rose sharply against the yen before a subsequent turnaround. The dollar fell 2% during the day from its peak-to-trough level as traders quickly reversed bets on the yen.

      March 11, 2011 13:49 ET (18:49 GMT)
      Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.


      Ein Vergleich zum Kobe Erdbeben von 1995. Damals haben die Geldrückflüsse zum ATL zum USD geführt.
      Würde und Sein - sind allen gemein
      Showdown im Yen?

      Yen ist auf Tagesbasis in einem historischen Bollinger crunch wie es ihn noch nie gab (nicht einmal 1995 beim ATL).
      Im Chart ist der Bollinger als lila Linie zu sehen. Der aktuelle Wert beträgt 165 (entspricht der gelben Linie). Grün ist der oszillierende Kurs.
      Grafik beim betrachten ev. vergrössern.

      Würde und Sein - sind allen gemein