Original von oldschuren
Ob es sich jetzt lohnen würde short in Weizen zu gehen??? Man könnte sich für einen kleinen Betrag Puts in das Depot legen....

Was sprich dagegen ???

Denke an Put kurz aus dem Geld, Laufzeit 3 Monate, evt. Verkauf nach zwei Monaten oder nach einen deutlich Abwärtsrutsch.

Original von cosmopolit
Vielleicht hast du ja historische Charts betrachtet, die besagen, dass sich Weizen im August-Oktober tendenztiell verbilligt, aber ansonsten sehe ich keine Grund für einen Short.

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 7/24/2007

September wheat traded 17 1/4 cents higher overnight.

New contract highs for the French soft wheat futures overnight combined with continued concerns for yield due to too much rain for the European harvest helped support the trade overnight. Montana crop conditions continued to deteriorate but North Dakota was steady at 84% good to excellent. The severe 100 degree heat has stayed in the western sections of the spring wheat belt and traders are a bit more concerned with hot and dry conditions into Canada and the impact on their crop as compared with the North Dakota crop which was past the heat sensitive period when the heat arrived. Reports of lower than expected yields from Europe have provided solid underlying support. After the close, Egypt tendered for more wheat (55,000-60,000 tonnes) and traders suspect that the US will again receive the loin's share of the business. Algeria is in the market to buy at least 100,000 tonnes of wheat. With temperatures expected to reach near 108 degrees in the northern plains today, the trade believes the spring wheat crop may deteriorate further.

The strong close higher yesterday despite the sharp sell-off in the other grain markets and the weakness in many commodity markets on the day is seen as an impressive technical development. Continued reports of lower than expected yields for the European harvest and new contract highs for French wheat futures helped support the higher opening. Traders shook off the weak tone for the other grains but weakness seemed to help limit the buying support from funds early in the session. The weekly export inspections report, released during the session, showed wheat exports at 19.3 million bushels as compared with trade expectations at 13-16 million. In order to reach the projection for the year, weekly shipments need to average 20.6 million bushels. Lower private analyst projections for the Australia crop this season and continued concerns for the Argentina crop due to a lack of rain to get the crop planted and weekend cold weather added to the positive tone. The forecast for some rain and cooler temperatures for parts of North Dakota helped to limit the upside. In addition, crop scouts for the North Dakota crop tour believe they will see the crop off to an excellent start this week. Traders will monitor information out of the spring wheat crop tour this week.

The western portion of the northern plains continues to see hot and dry conditions for the next few days but cools down in the eastern sections of the Dakotas with some chance of a shower. Wheat basis at the Gulf was higher yesterday. The weekly Spring Wheat Conditions report showed 75% was rated good/excellent compared to 76% last week and 34% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 59%. The highest percent rated good/excellent was 82% in 1993 while the lowest was 5% in 1988. The weekly update also showed that only 83% of the Oklahoma crop is harvest which suggests a drop in production from previous expectations.

Original von goso
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