NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Weiss Ratings, a small, independent credit-ratings agency, has carried the debate over the U.S. government's triple-A credit rating several steps farther than the big Wall Street ratings agencies--consigning the world's largest economy to junk-bond status on Thursday.
Weiss is a little-known provider of opinions on the health of banking and financial institutions. Still, the firm touts its having predicted the failure of major banks, including Lehman Brothers, in advance of the 2008 financial crisis that paralyzed markets worldwide.
Last week, Standard & Poor's warned that the U.S.'s coveted AAA status could be at risk of downgrade within the next two years. The news reverberated through markets at a time when Washington is embroiled in a pitched battle about raising the debt ceiling and closing the yawning budget deficit.
But Weiss--which Thursday assigned the U.S. a "C" rating that lands it squarely in the lower rung of its global sovereigns--argued that the ratings of S&P, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch are "unfair to investors who are undercompensated for the risks they are taking."
Renewing a longstanding debate about large ratings agencies, Weiss contended that these institutions are effectively understating the risks to investors with their ranking systems.
"An honest rating is also urgently needed to help support the political compromises and collective sacrifices the U.S. must make in order to restore its finances," said Martin D. Weiss, president of Weiss Ratings, in a statement.
A spokesman for S&P declined to comment. Moody's didn't comment, but last week issued a report detailing how it interprets the U.S.'s credit strengths and vulnerabilities. A spokesman for Fitch didn't immediately return a request seeking comment.
According to Weiss's scale, rankings range from A (excellent) to E (very weak), and it has four major areas that comprise its ratings: debt burdens, international stability, economic health and market acceptance. Based on these criteria, Weiss scores the U.S. at 33rd among 47 nations--lower than Russia, China, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia and South Korea.
The ratings agency, which had previously specialized in rating banks and insurers, is expanding into sovereign ratings for the first time, the company said.
The C rating assigned to the U.S. "signals that the current fiscal condition of the United States government is far weaker than recognized by the credit rating agencies," Weiss said in its statement.
"At the same time, it means that the U.S. currently retains enough borrowing power in the marketplace to give it the opportunity to take remedial steps. Still, there are grave risks for policymakers and investors, including the possibility of a vicious cycle that includes severe declines in U.S. bond prices and the U.S. dollar," the firm stated.
Bond yields have been relatively stable of late. However, the dollar has plunged to near a three-year low against a basket of major trading partners as investors flee the U.S. currency's low-yields associated with the Federal Reserve's ultra-loose monetary policy.

April 28, 2011 12:40 ET (16:40 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Mon Mar 07 12:58:21 CET 2011 USD Dollar index testing trendline support and range lows below at 75.65 - closing break there is VERY bearish signal

Mon Dec 13 15:16:28 CET 2010 USD Moodys states the US tax extension increases the lieklyhood of a negative outlook on the USs AAA rating in the next 2 years

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Top members of the incoming GOP majority in the U.S. House of Representatives continued to level broadsides against the Federal Reserve Tuesday, questioning its proper role in shaping U.S. economic policy.
Reps. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and Indiana's Mike Pence both repeated calls for an end to the central bank's dual mandate to promote jobs and maintain price stability. Members of Congress aren't trying to encroach on the Fed's independence, Pence said, but may have to take legislative action to change the Fed's responsibilities.
"It's time that the Fed focus solely on price stability and the dollar," Pence said. He said the Fed's plan to buy $600 billion in Treasury securities to stimulate the economy--generally known as QE2, for the second round of quantitative easing--is an example of the central bank overstepping its bounds.
"QE2 is an example of what happens when the Fed involves itself too much in macroeconomic meddling," Pence said.
The comments are the latest in a growing drumbeat of criticism leveled against the Fed, which has come under fire for its response to the financial crisis, continued high-levels of unemployment, and general economic uncertainty.
The Fed has increasingly sought to combat some of the criticism, with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke giving a rare television interview on Sunday evening in an effort to speak directly to the American people. In the interview, featured on CBS' "60 Minutes" news program, Bernanke warned that the economic recovery "may not be" self-sustaining, but pledged his "100%" confidence he could prevent runaway inflation.
But that appears to have done little to sway the opinion of key House Republicans such as Ryan and Pence. Ryan said the Fed has misplaced confidence in its ability to maintain price stability and solve the economy's current woes by "running the printing presses on overtime."
"It's a fatal conceit," Ryan said. "We're undermining the precepts of sound money."
Both lawmakers questioned whether the U.S. dollar would remain the world's reserve currency if the U.S. remains on its current fiscal path. Pence said he supports comments made by World Bank President Robert Zoellick last month that global leaders should reconsider gold's place in the global monetary system.
"The time has come to have a debate on the role of gold," Pence said.

December 07, 2010 13:04 ET (18:04 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Thu Oct 14 08:32:52 CEST 2010 SGD Singapore's MAS signals wider band for its currency.

Thu Oct 14 08:39:53 CEST 2010 SGD MAS announced that it will continue with its policy of a modest and gradual appreciation of the SGD NEER band in the period ahead. However, MAS stated that the slope of the policy band will be increased slightly, with no change to the level at which the band is centered. The policy band will at the same time be widened. While we need to wait for SGD NEER data for the period to October 2010, released in the next couple of weeks, to ascertain the exact changes, early indications suggest a slight steepening of the slope to 3%, from the current 2%. Additionally, we believe MAS has widened the band from +/- 1.5% to +/- 2%.

...
Singapur überrascht

Als Auslöser für den aktuellen Kursrutsch des Dollar nannten Marktbeobachter die überraschende Ausweitung der Handelsspanne für den Wechselkurs des Singapur-Dollar. «Dies steigert die Wahrscheinlichkeit von weiteren Aufwertungen asiatischer Währungen, inklusive der chinesischen, im Vorfeld des G20-Treffens», sagte Devisenexperte Hideaki Inoue von der Mitsubishi Trust Bank.
...
Die Inflationsängste trieben Anleger in Aktien und andere Anlageklassen, sagte Finanzmarkt-Experte Tsutomu Soma von Okasan Securities. Der MSCI-Index der weltweit wichtigsten Börsenwerte erreichte fast wieder das Niveau unmittelbar vor der Pleite der US- Investmentbank Lehman Brothers im September 2008.

Zahlreiche Anleger schichteten ihr Geld zudem in Rohstoffe um. Diese werden meist in Dollar gehandelt und verbilligen sich bei einer Abwertung der US-Währung für Investoren ausserhalb der USA.

retep schrieb:

Interessante Einrückung der "guten" Amizahlen vom Arbeitsmarkt.

Fri Jun 04 15:01:20 CEST 2010 USD Take that large jump in NFP with a grain of salt. The 431,000 increase in US non-farm payrolls in May was principally due to the hiring of 411,000 temporary workers to help with the field surveys for the 2010 census. Those are nearly all part-time workers earning $19 an hour, who will be laid off again within another couple of months.

Fri Jun 04 15:01:20 CEST 2010 USD Take that large jump in NFP with a grain of salt. The 431,000 increase in US non-farm payrolls in May was principally due to the hiring of 411,000 temporary workers to help with the field surveys for the 2010 census. Those are nearly all part-time workers earning $19 an hour, who will be laid off again within another couple of months.

Pacific Investment Management Co. said the U.S. dollar could weaken as its reserve currency status erodes, even without a viable alternative.
There are "many reasons to expect a secular decline in the value of the U.S. dollar," a Pimco portfolio manager, Curtis Mewbourne, wrote in a report seen Wednesday on the company's Web site.
"And while we have not yet reached the point where a new global reserve currency will arise, we are clearly seeing a loss of status for the U.S. dollar as a store of value even in the absence of a single viable alternative," Mewbourne wrote.
"In combination with other factors, that likely means a continuing devaluing of the U.S. dollars versus other currencies, especially the EM (emerging market) currencies."

Full report: pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Mar…+New+Normal+Mewbourne.htm

Dow Jones Newswires
August 19, 2009 00:59 ET (04:59 GMT)

[Dow Jones] Asian central bank buying good amounts of EUR/USD in past one hour from 1.4100, driving pair to 1.4120 high, says Singapore dealer. EUR/USD last 1.4115.

August 18, 2009 01:53 ET (05:53 GMT)

Im Mercosur sollen örtliche Devisen Dollar im Handel ablösen

Asunción - Die Mitglieder der südamerikanischen Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft Mercosur wollen die Waren im Handel untereinander nicht mehr mit dem US-Dollar bezahlen. Der Staatenbund beschloss auf seinem Gipfel in Paraguay, die bislang vorherrschende US-Währung durch örtliche Devisen abzulösen, wie der paraguayische Vize-Außenminister Oscar Rodríguez der Nachrichtenagentur AFP sagte. Argentinien und Brasilien hatten den entsprechenden Schritt bereits im vergangenen Jahr vollzogen.

Paraguay und Uruguay werden sich nach Angaben ihrer Außenministerien dem neuen System Ende 2010 anschließen. Die Zentralbanken beider Länder müssen demnach zuvor noch technische Einzelheiten klären.

Hauptthemen des Gipfeltreffens in der paraguayischen Hauptstadt Asunción sind außer der weltweiten Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise und ihrer Auswirkungen auf Südamerika die Staatskrise in Honduras sowie die Schweinegrippe.

Der Mercosur wurde 1991 von Argentinien, Brasilien, Paraguay und Uruguay mit dem Ziel gegründet, einen gemeinsamen Wirtschaftsraum zu schaffen. Venezuela hat 2006 ein Mitgliedschaftsabkommen unterzeichnet, das allerdings noch nicht ratifiziert ist. Assoziierte Länder sind Bolivien, Chile, Ecuador und Kolumbien.

...
Die riesigen Devisenreserven Japans könnten auch bei den nächsten Wahlen in dem Land ins Rampenlicht rücken. Nach der schweren Schlappe der konservativen japanischen Regierungspartei LDP bei den Kommunalwahlen am Sonntag in Tokio stehen voraussichtlich schon im August Neuwahlen an - und mit Masaharu Nakagawa hat der Schattenfinanzminister der oppositionellen Demokratischen Partei Japans erstmals ein Politiker erklärt, sein Land solle die Reserven zulasten des Dollar stärker diversifizieren. Nakagawas Partei hat Chancen, bei den kommenden Wahlen die absolute Mehrheit zu gewinnen. Die regierende LDP hat bislang dagegen immer den Kauf von US-Staatsanleihen favorisiert.
...

China: Dollar bleibt noch viele Jahre führende Reservewährung

Rom (Reuters) - Der Dollar wird nach Ansicht Chinas noch lange die weltweit vorherrschende Reservewährung bleiben.

Die US-Währung spiele diese Rolle noch immer und werde dies nach Einschätzung Chinas auch noch viele weitere Jahre tun, sagte Chinas Vize-Außenminister He Yafei am Sonntag in Rom. Mit seinen Äußerungen wollte er offenbar vor allem die US-Regierung beruhigen. Auch an den Finanzmärkten ist die Diskussion um eine neue Welt-Leitwährung ein sehr heikles Thema.

China hatte vor dem G8-Gipfel diese Woche in Italien eine Debatte über eine Alternative zur US-Währung gefordert. Die Rolle des Dollar als weltweite Reservewährung wird jedoch Kreisen zufolge im Abschlusskommunique des G8-Gipfels nicht ausdrücklich erwähnt. Das Thema werde wohl vage diskutiert, sagte ein europäischer G8-Vertreter, der namentlich nicht genannt werden wollte. Die Debatte habe aber noch nicht den Stand erreicht, um sie schriftlich in dem Kommunique festzuhalten.

AIX EN PROVENCE, France (Dow Jones)--India may consider diversifying the currency basket against which the value of the rupee is measured to give less weight to the dollar, an advisor to the Indian prime minister said Friday, adding that it is up to the central bank to decide on the matter.
"The basket may undergo changes," Suresh Tendulkar told journalists on the sidelines of an economist conference in southern France. "It's up to the Reserve Bank of India to decide."
India is concerned that the unwinding of global imbalances, which include record U.S. current account and foreign trade deficits and symmetric trade surpluses in China and Japan, will cause the dollar to depreciate.
"A currency realignement has to take place to correct global imbalances," Tendulkar said. "The Chinese yuan and the Japanese yen have to appreciate and the U.S. currency has to go down."
While acknowledging that a correction is necessary, Tendulkar said India should consider taking steps to avoid a negative impact on its economy and its currency.
The fall in the value of the dollar "could be a problem" for India, Tendulkar said. That justifies efforts to shift away from the world's reserve currency, he said, but the shift should be planned carefully so that it doesn't disrupt markets and should be agreed upon internationally.
...
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 03, 2009 12:54 ET (16:54 GMT)

China has requested that proposals for a new global reserve currency to replace the U.S. dollar be debated at Group of Eight meetings next week, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing G8 sources. Representatives from G8 nations - plus Brazil, China, India, Mexico, South Africa and Egypt - meet July 9 in Italy. China made its request during discussions about a joint statement that will be issued on the second day of the meetings, a source told Reuters. Another source acknowledged that China brought up the possible debate. In March, the governor of China's central bank suggested that the world should consider using the IMF's Special Drawing Rights as the reserve currency.
Full story at reuters.com/article/usDollarRpt/idUSLAG00356720090701

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 01, 2009 13:02 ET (17:02 GMT)/quote]