Forex Trades & Talk

      Cable

      so, ich verstehe mich mit dem Cable doch ganz gut ... (ausser Oanda kommt dazwischen)

      hohe erratik heute im cable ...



      Jetzt gehts erstmal duschen.

      PS: "MC" steht für manuelles closing der position, da oanda mein SL einfach nicht ausführen wollte
      I go for it!

      Dieser Beitrag wurde bereits 1 mal editiert, zuletzt von „DanielR“ ()

      BNP: Redeker schaut in die Glaskugel - GBPJPY bei 200 / Mehr troubles als im August in Sicht (wegen Yen rebound)

      LONDON (Dow Jones)--Currencies linked to high interest rates could be set for a tumble even uglier than the one seen in August, according to new research from BNP Paribas.
      Equity market volatility and strains in the financial sector are taking their toll on investors' appetite for high-yield currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars, threatening to send them plunging, the bank said in a note to clients Tuesday.
      The popular strategy of buying high-yielders at the expense of lower yielding currencies like the yen and the Swiss franc - known as the carry trade - could be set to lose money over the whole of 2007, marking the first such loss since 2001.
      "The carry trade is now facing its most severe threat for many years," said Hans Redeker, chief currency strategist at BNP Paribas in London.
      "High-yielders are now at risk of a significant and sustained selloff, while the low-yielders, particularly the yen, are starting a major rebound," he added.
      When the U.S. mortgage market started to bite financial markets in August, the carry trade, which is highly sensitive to investors' appetite for risk, took a nasty hit. The high-yielding New Zealand dollar dropped some 9% against the yen in just one day as traders and investors rushed to the exits.
      According to data from Deutsche Bank, a basic dummy portfolio that sold three major low-yielding currencies and bought three key high-yielders dropped over 7% from Aug. 1 to 17, marking an unusually heavy fall.
      By the end of August, however, the carry strategy had recouped some of its losses, and it has bounced back surprisingly strongly since then.
      But Redeker at BNP Paribas thinks that this time around, the carry selloff will be different. The prospect of sustained stress in financial markets will make banks less willing to lend money, indirectly pinching investors' access to carry positions. And the Federal Reserve's apparently neutral stance shows that it's unwilling to support risk appetite.
      "(This) all suggests that investors may be far more reluctant to buy on dips as far as the carry trade is concerned this time around," Redeker said.
      He says that high-yielding sterling is particularly vulnerable, and he's targeting a fall against the yen to Y200.50, from Y228 now.
      Carry trades have weakened over recent days, as investors suffered a renewed bout of nerves over losses stemming from the U.S. mortgage market. Deutsche Bank's carry index is over 5% lower so far this month.
      But not everyone is as pessimistic as BNP Paribas. "Is the carry trade dead?" asked UBS's analysts Monday. "Yes and no."
      Carry is certainly under pressure, UBS said, particularly as global growth looks unstable. That should boost the Swiss franc and the yen and dent high-yielders. Risk indicators hint that traders are about to scale back their exposure to risk, the bank added.
      But over the long term, investors are keen to find new risky trades, making behavior supportive to carry positions, UBS said. "Should growth expectations normalize, carry trades may rebound strongly," it added.
      That goes some way to explaining why in trading Tuesday, key high-yielders like the Australian and New Zealand dollars have been climbing again, while the yen has slipped a little lower.

      Devisenverkehrskontrollen

      "Zum merkantilistischen Schutz der eigenen Exportwirtschaft suchen viele Länder derzeit nach Wegen, weitere Kursgewinne ihrer Währungen gegenüber dem Dollar zu verhindern. Dabei stützen sie sich oft nicht auf Instrumente wie den Verkauf von Dollar-Reserven oder eine Anhebung der Leitzinsen, sondern sie setzen auf Devisenverkehrskontrollen..."

      der komplette Bericht hier bei: faz
      I go for it!

      Cable Trade 5

      Jeden Tag so eine halbe Stunde würde mir reichen. *g Momentum war eben da...

      Noch ein Trade im Cable. Long @09, 50% der Posi bei +10Pips exit, rest auf einstand gerade eben ausgestoppt. M5 und M1 haben sich schön gleichmäßig bewegt... :) Werde nun HS schliessen, Frau ist wieder da...und kranke Kinder wieder wach. :S Bei dem Lärm kann ich nicht traden, da bin ich halb am durchdrehen, wenn ich Geschreie um mich herum habe.

      Bis heut abend!
      Dan
      I go for it!

      Das läuft ja hervorragend für "sporadisches" Trading :D
      Der Autor ist in den besprochenen Werten zumeist selbst investiert. Traden auf eigene Gefahr, Signale sind aktuell großteils experimentell zwecks Challenge "In 30 Tagen zur Trading Strategie".
      Plane deinen Trade, trade deinen Plan!
      If it´s not a HELL YES, it´s a NO!