Forex Trades & Talk
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Heute kommen ja ein paar Zahlen, dann kommen vl auch Chancen.
• 10:00 EU EZB Monatsbericht April
• 11:00 - ! DE ifo Wirtschaftsklima Euroraum
• 11:00 - ! EU BIP-Indikator 1. u. 2. Quartal
• 11:00 - ! EU BIP 4. Quartal
• 14:30 US Handelsbilanz Februar... einer von Gottes eigenen Prototypen, ein aufgemotzter Mutant, der nie zur Massenproduktion in Betracht gezogen wurde, zu spleenig zum Leben und zu selten zum Sterben. -
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Original von Trader1984
es sieht momentan ganz danach aus das der eur gegenüber dem dollar zulegen wird. der grund dafür könnte das handelsdefizit sein.
Als Entschuldigung für meinen faux pas kriegste hier die aktuelle Konsensumfrage zum Thema Handelsbilanzdefizit!
gruss
U.S. Feb trade deficit seen narrowing to $67.50 bln
NEW YORK, April 10 (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit likely narrowed in February from the previous month's record shortfall, supported by softer oil prices and weaker U.S. consumer purchases that helped reduced imports.
The Commerce Department is due to release U.S. international trade data on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. (1230 GMT). Economists in a Reuters survey forecast a median $67.50 billion deficit, compared with a record $68.51 billion gap in January.
Analysts say lower oil costs due to fairly mild weather helped limit the U.S. trade gap. At the end of January, U.S. crude futures <CLc1> were at roughly $67.90 per barrel. By February, oil futures had dropped as low as $57.50 per barrel.
Currency analysts will look closely at the trade deficit and the need to finance it since the gap has weighed heavily on the dollar in recent years. Markets, however, largely ignored this issue for much of 2005 as the Federal Reserve continued a series of interest rate hikes it started in June 2004.
But with the Fed's dollar-supportive tightening cycle expected to be completed soon, the U.S. trade imbalance could once again emerge as a concern for dollar bulls.
Following are selected comments from leading global analysts:
U.S. ECONOMICS TEAM, LEHMAN BROTHERS:
Forecast: -$67.5 billion
"The trade deficit likely improved by a billion to $67.5 billion in February, compared with the record $68.5 billion imbalance recorded in January. We look for exports to fall 1 percent, due in part to lower aircraft exports as Boeing has reported cooler orders over the past couple of months. However, imports should fall a bit more, by 1.2 percent. Lower oil prices in February should pull down the value of petroleum imports. Auto imports should also drop, as indicated by the cooling unit sales during February. Other consumer goods imports will also likely drop a bit, as indicated by the drop in February retail sales. On net, however, we do not expect any considerable medium-term improvement in the trade deficit. Trade models suggest that with a stable currency and solid domestic growth the deficit will widen."
U.S. ECONOMICS TEAM, GLOBAL INSIGHT
Forecast: -$66.2 billion
"The trade deficit is expected to ease back to $66.2 billion in February from the record $68.5 billion gap in January. We expect some downward correction in imports after last month's 3.5 percent surge, combined with roughly steady exports, supported by another increase in aircraft exports... A modest improvement in the trade deficit is a step in the right direction. A pick up in growth in Japan and Europe is positive for export prospects in March and the remainder of 2006. However, continued pressure on crude oil prices will stymie any near-term improvements in the import bill. As a result, the trade deficit is not expected to start to edge down until the third quarter of 2006."
AUDREY CHILDE-FREEMAN, SENIOR EUROPEAN ECONOMIST, CIBC WORLD MARKETS:
Forecast: -$67 to -$68 billion
"The US trade position has gone from bad to worse over the past few months/quarters and we cannot blame it all on higher oil prices. In fact, for as long as U.S. consumers continue to spend, any sustainable improvement in the US trade position is difficult to contemplate. After a further surge in the January trade deficit (to $68.5 billion from $65.1 billion), we expect the trade gap to stay close to the $67 billion/$68 billion mark in February and that would take the cumulative trade deficit for the January-February 2006 period to $135 billion, comparing to $118 billion at the same time last year, a 12.6 percent worsening on a year-on-year basis."
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Original von Trader1984
es sieht momentan ganz danach aus das der eur gegenüber dem dollar zulegen wird. der grund dafür könnte das handelsdefizit sein.
...vielleicht sinds auch einfach nur mehr EUR-Käufer als USD-Verkäufer...
Woran siehst Du das? Und wo siehst Du EURUSD in der Zukunft wenn Du das so sicher glaubst? Und in welcher Zukunft (Zeitrahmen)?
gruss
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@ janson
Montags ist es häufiger ruhiger, außerdem war die enge Range vom Freitag noch nicht so lange vorhanden. Im 60 TF bildete sich grade erst eine BB-Verengung. Um so länger die besteht, um so größer wird die Wahrscheinlichkeit für einen Ausbruch oder - wie heute - eine leichte Weitung infolge eines kurzzeitigen Mini-Trends.
Wenn es immer so einfach wäre wie am Montag morgen mit dem Range-Traden, dann wären wir ja alle schon reich.
Am sichersten ist es noch zwischen 6.00 und 7.00 Uhr, aber meist kann man da nur ein paar Pips einsammeln, und auch da kann es mal ein, zwei Wochen geben, an denen es nicht so ruhig brav innerhalb der Range zugeht. Da ich kein Frühaufsteher bin, mache ich morgens nichts mehr. Sonst wäre ich zu so früher Stunde sicherlich aktiv.
Am besten klappt es im Euro, Cable ist selbst am frühen Morgen (für mich)zu flippig, Yen kann man um die Uhrzeit vergessen, da dort häufig schon früher das passiert, was heute im Euro ab 7.30 Uhr lief. Bestens würde es auch im Loonie laufen, aber da ist die Range meist so eng, daß man einen Spread von 1, höchstens 2 Pips bräuchte.
Gruß
Bo10a -
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