Forex Trades & Talk

      Der Offenmarktausschuss der Fed erhöht die Zinsen um 25 Basispunkte auf 5,00 % von zuletzt 4,75 %. Damit war bereits im Vorfeld der Sitzung gerechnet worden. Die Entscheidung sei erneut einstimmig gefällt worden.

      Die gestiegenen Preise bei Energie und anderen Waren hätten sich kaum auf die Kerninflation ausgewirkt, trotzdem hätten Preissteigerungen in diesen Bereich das Potenzial, den Inflationsdruck zu erhöhen. Weitere Zinserhöhungen schloss die Fed nicht aus, die hingen jedoch von der weiteren wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung ab

      The Federal Reserve is seen raising US interest rates this week but markets and economists believe that the pace of increases may come to an end amid signs that the US is entering a period of slowdown.

      The US central bank's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on Wednesday and is expected to stage the 16th consecutive hike to US rates. That would take the benchmark rate up a quarter point to 5.0% from 4.75% now.

      Wall Street's hopes of an imminent pause to the Fed's long campaign of hikes, which began in mid-2004, have soared since chairman Ben Bernanke last month hinted at an end "at some point in the future".

      Investors decided that point would come sooner rather than later, despite Bernanke's reported complaint to a television anchor woman that the markets had taken a far too rosy view of his remarks.

      Any decision to pause "does not preclude actions at subsequent meetings", and the Fed "will not hesitate to act", if necessary, to keep inflation in check, Bernanke stressed in congressional testimony last month.

      "Another rate hike is virtually certain, so the markets will focus on how the directive characterises the outlook for policy in the coming meetings," Lehman Brothers economists said.

      US shares have powered to all-time highs after weak April jobs growth raised the hopes of a Fed pause even higher. The rally came after the non-farm payrolls report showed that US employers added a weaker-than-expected 138,000 new jobs in April, the worst level since October.

      But on a less positive note for interest rates heading into Wednesday's FOMC meeting, the payrolls report also showed a sharp rise in wages.

      Average hourly earnings increased nine cents, or 0.5%, to 16.61 dollars in April, the Labor Department said. Earnings are up 3.8% in the past year, the biggest year-over-year gain since August 2001.

      "It seems fairly safe to assume that the Fed will hike rates by 25 basis points to 5.0% Wednesday, but the jury remains out for any decision after that, in light of Bernanke's unclear comments last week and the latest string of economic data."

      Before recently, record-breaking oil prices had failed to have much effect on consumer prices in the United States. Neither have US workers derived much benefit in their pay packets from robust growth.

      That appears now to be changing, with more and more businesses saying they are having to pass higher commodity costs on to their customers.

      "With labour costs rising, Bernanke has to be worried that this could lead to higher inflation." But against that, Bernanke's Fed is keen not to take US rates so high that they kill the economy.


      Economy to slow

      The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates once more and leave them steady at 5% through 2007 as economic growth slows and inflation remains moderate, according to a survey of economists.

      A panel of 50 forecasters surveyed by the National Association of Business Economics bumped up its consensus outlook for second-quarter economic growth to a 3.5% annual rate from 3.4% forecast three months ago.

      For 2006 as a whole, gross domestic product is expected to increase by 3.5%, up from the 3.3% forecast in February, before cooling to 3.0% growth in 2007.

      "The NABE panel sees the economy heading for a period of slightly below-trend growth with moderate inflation for the rest of this year and next," said Stuart Hoffman, NABE president and chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group.

      The NABE survey was taken April 7 to April 25.

      The panel believes policy-makers at the Fed will raise rates just one more time, taking the target fed funds rate to 5.0% before the end of the second quarter. That will represent the peak of this tightening cycle, which began in June 2004, the group said.

      "The full panel no longer expects the Fed to gradually lower the fed funds rate back to 4.5% by the end of (2007), the panel's estimate of the neutral rate," it said. "Instead the panel looks for a steady 5.00 funds rate throughout all of next year."

      The central bank has raised overnight borrowing costs to 4.75% in a bid to return rates to neutral levels and head off inflation concerns. NABE said high and rising energy costs remain the biggest downside risk to economic growth and the biggest upside risk to inflation.

      The panel expects the Consumer Price Index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, to increase 2.3% in 2006 and 2.4% in 2004, unchanged from the February forecast.

      Crude oil is expected to be trading near $63 a barrel at the end of the year, up from $59 forecast in February. But the panel believes the US economy will withstand the hits of higher oil and gasoline prices.

      Consumer spending was forecast to rise 3.3% this year and 3.0% in 2007, a slight slowdown from the 3.5% gain in 2005.

      Job growth will remain solid, with about 2.1 mln jobs created in 2006 and 1.8 mln added next year, NABE said. That is just strong enough to maintain the unemployment rate at 4.7% this year before it rises to average 4.9% in 2007, the panel forecast.

      RE: meta

      @ trader

      wenn goso immer wieder die gleichen antworten geben soll, weil die meisten die zeit nicht aufwenden, sich die vergangenen beiträge anzuschauen, liegt sein verhalten auf der hand.


      goso schrieb kürzlich:
      ....bereit sein den Preis - soziale Vereinsamung, gesellschaftlich komischer Status, keine soziale Sicherheit und mindestens 60 Stunden/Woche - zu bezahlen.


      und so bestätigt deine vermutung, goso wolle wegen dem schönen wetter nicht mehr antworten, das anfangs beschriebene verhalten
      Dinge die man hastig tut,
      bedauert man langsam.

      RE: meta

      Das hat nichts mit dem Wetter zu tun, es ist einfach so, dass ich meine Handlesmethodik schon unzählige Male erklärt habe, einige Member auch Teile davon profitabel einsetzen, aber im Endeffekt muss jeder Trader seinen eigenen Weg gehen, seinen Stil finden.

      Ausserdem macht sich nach einigen tausend Beiträgen in Foren eine gewisse Postingmüdigkeit bemerkbar.

      RE: meta

      So, nochmals hat 80 >>>> 20 funktioniert.

      Nachdem ich meine Handelsmethodik hier nun schon hunderte Male erklärt habe werde ich mich in dieser Hinsicht in Zukunft zurückhalten.

      Ich werde meine Tätigkeit im Forum in Zukunft auf die Modfunktion reduzieren, nach ein paar 1000 Erklärungen ist einfach das Ende meiner Bereitschaft immer wieder die selben Fragen zu beantworten erreicht.

      RE: Cable

      Original von Rasputin
      Guten Morgen Leute!

      Goso kannst du mal was zu deinen letzten 2 Swissytrades sagen?
      Irgendwie check ich die gar nicht.

      Danke,
      Ras


      Die letzten beiden? Einer davon war gestern Nachmittag!!!!!

      Der heutige war simpel, man sah im Cable Momentum nach Norden aufkommen, der Swissy pendelte bei 1,2200 herum, da ich von einer USD Schwächung ausging Short im USDCHF.