[FOCUS COMMENT: THE FIRST CRACKS IN CARRY TRADES] could well topple Aud-Jpy fr...
[FOCUS COMMENT: THE FIRST CRACKS IN CARRY TRADES] could well topple Aud-Jpy from its pedestal. The RBA has help rates steady, but increasingly there are disturbing signs that the economy may be about to crack. In contrast, mkts are coming bulled up about a BoJ rate rise in Dec.
@ WHS ForexStation
muss ich wohl nicht uebersetzen, oder?

27.11.2006 - 13:45 Uhr
NZ: Geschäftsklimaindex gesunken

Der neuseeländische NBNZ-Geschäftsklimaindex ist im November überraschend von -21,7 auf 14,0 Punkte gefallen. Erwartet worden war ein Rückgang auf lediglich 21,0 Zähler. NZD/USD hat jedoch kaum auf die Nachricht reagiert und notiert gegen 13:45 Uhr CET bei 0,6695.

Im Zuge der USD-Talfahrt vom Freitag hatte NZD/USD ein Hoch bei 0,6742 erreicht, das das Währungspaar im Zuge der neuerlichen USD-Verluste im asiatischen Handel am Montag jedoch nicht weiter ausbauen konnte. Im europäischen Geschäft verlor NZD/USD bis 0,6681 im Tief, wobei die Einschätzung, dass der „Kiwi“ überbewertet sei, die nach wie vor vorhandene Unterstützung durch den Zinsfaktor untergrub.

Auch die zuletzt gesehene Volatilität mache Carry Trades weniger attraktiv, sagte ein Marktbeobachter. Auf Unterstützung trifft NZD/USD bei 0,6675. Verkaufsaufträge liegen im Bereich von 0,6735-40.
(th/FXdirekt)

ich masse mir nicht an zu sagen, wo die ueber- oder unterbewertung einer waehrung liegt.

was ungarn anbetrifft, so sind die politischen unsicherheiten sicherlich auch noch zu beruecksichtigen

eingehend: begruendungen sind statements nach einem event und daher mit vorsichtig zu betrachten.
eurostaerke allgemein an diesem freitag

zar:
Kagiso Securities’ economist Elize Kruger argues that South Africa is not too far from its interest rate peak.

She forecasts a 50 basis point rate rise in December, after which a pause in rate adjustments is likely.

“Policy works with a delay; but by the end of this year and early next year, the effects of the Reserve Bank’s interest rate hikes on consumer spending are likely to become apparent,” Kruger says.

By February, the MPC may want to wait and see what the effect of its tightening has been on the economy, Kruger and Els say.

Kruger believes that CPIX inflation could temporarily breach the 6% inflation target ceiling, which need not compel the MPC to take further policy action.

Els is more optimistic on the likely behaviour of the inflation target variable, saying it could peak at 5,7% in April next year, driven to a large extent by a near-10% food inflation rate. He forecasts a CPIX inflation average of 5,2% in 2007.

The MPC next meets on December 6 and 7

ich bin heute und morgen abwesend. versuche mal was rauszuholen

Hungary bank chief: euro plans flawed

BUDAPEST, Hungary

The president of Hungary's central bank on Wednesday said the government's plan to prepare the economy to adopt the euro is flawed and it was unclear when the country would adopt the euro currency, state news agency MTI reported.

National Bank President Zsigmond Jarai said the government's "euro convergence plan" -- which was approved by the European Union in September -- increases taxes for businesses and was likely to slow economic growth.

The National Bank earlier this year foresaw a currency switch in 2007, which was first stretched into 2008 and now into 2010. Analysts say 2014 is a more realistic aim.

"Today, we don't know when there will be the euro currency in the country because this convergence program does not lead to the common European currency," MTI quoted Jarai as saying.

We are hearing of rumours surrounding a possible downgrade in [ICELAND]'...
We are hearing of rumours surrounding a possible downgrade in [ICELAND]'s rating, cited as a key reason for Eur/Isk's rise to levels not seen since early August. [EUR/ISK] is now trading around 91.4350, up 0.8868 pnts on the day as market nerves revive over the risk of a hard landing for the economy - a threat highlighted by Fitch last week. Investors have remained cautious towards the Isk since the aggressive selling pressure seen last April where Eur/Isk rallied to 97.55 and triggered a bail out across the EM asset/ccy class. We see scope for a further Eur/Isk spike higher to strong resistance at the 92.50 level. 89.00 provides a solid floor as the bias is firmly skewed to the upside.

Hungarian Forint Declines as Central Bank Keeps Rates on Hold

By Katarzyna Klimasinska

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Hungary's forint fell for a third day against the euro after the country's central bank unexpectedly kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged.

The forint headed for its longest slide in a month after the Budapest-based central bank kept lending rates at the highest in the European Union. Only five of the 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast rates would be kept at 8 percent, with the rest expecting a quarter-point increase. The bank lifted its benchmark rate last month, pushing the forint 4.6 percent higher.

``We can see more forint weakening in the coming days,'' said Lars Christensen, an emerging market strategist at Danske Bank S/A in Copenhagen. ``A lot of people expected a rate hike, given the central bank's quite hawkish comments last week.''

Against the euro, the forint fell to 258.35 per euro at 2:34 p.m. in Budapest from 257.95 on Nov. 17. It may fall to 270 by the end of the year if the borrowing costs remain unchanged, Christensen said.

Hungary's annual inflation the highest in the EU, rose to 6.3 percent in October. The forint's advance to an eight-month high against the euro last week helped contain inflation by reducing the cost of imported goods.

``We are very worried about the inflation figures from the last few months,'' the central bank's head, Zsigmond Jarai said on Nov. 16. ``It seems expectations of enterprises have increased very rapidly,'' as ``the government is increasing prices and taxes.''

Currency Strategists: Rupiah to Decline, Nomura Says (Update1)

By Jake Lee

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia's rupiah, the third strongest Asia-Pacific currency this year, will weaken in 2007 as overseas investors sell the nation's bonds, said Nomura Holdings Inc.

Rupiah-denominated government bonds offer global funds more than double the returns of U.S. Treasuries, helping spur the rupiah toward its 7.4 percent rally, the biggest annual advance in four years. Slower inflation will prompt the central bank to lower its key rate by 2.5 percentage points in 2007, narrowing the yield gap, said Nomura's Tomo Kinoshita in an interview. ....

Calpers Enters

Bank Indonesia lifted rates to a three-year high of 12.75 percent last year to stem inflation after the government more than doubled fuel prices. This year, global crude prices have dropped 7.9 percent, after rising 45 percent in 2005.

``Foreign holdings of bonds have been the driving force of the rupiah,'' said Kinoshita. ``Once the central bank stops cutting rates, it'll also be negative as investors won't be able to get any capital gains from bond price increases. Many have invested for the first time and they're the guys who will be the first to sell as they'll be nervous.''

EUR/NOK] has been propped recently after oil prices dropped back below the ...
[EUR/NOK] has been propped recently after oil prices dropped back below the Usd 60brl mark and psych pivot. The already soft sentiment for the commodity block means sensitivity for further downward moves has increased. This drove an uptick in Eur/Nok up to the 8.26/8.27 area where spec offers capped the rally. Indeed, this highlights the overall sell-on-strength bias, with players remaining net-net positive for the Nokkie given the more hawkish slant in the last Norges Bank statement. Should oil continue to weaken however, risks for further topside work should be considered, and with the technical outlook suggesting a corrective recovery towards the 8.2990 area (38% retrace level) is on the cards, selling into more extensive strength ahead of the 8.3000 psych level could prove a safer bet.

The [RIKSBANK MINUTES] from the Oct 26 meeting when the repo rate was raised...
The [RIKSBANK MINUTES] from the Oct 26 meeting when the repo rate was raised 25bp, showed that the Executive Board was unanimous in its decision, with the general view on inflation little changed since the prior meeting. Diminishing capacity in the economy was the primary reason for tightening according to the bank. One board member urged vigilance with regards to money supply growth. According to another member, the interest rate path implied by the market may be too tight, while yet another member said that future policy is not clear cut as core UND1X inflation remains low. The minutes showed that while all members were unanimous in favour of a hike, their sentiments about future policy were mixed and dependent on ongoing economic developments. The minutes are not particularly hawkish.

NZD

The Kiwi remains under pressure from more then one front. NZDJPY has been "the" carry trade looking back over the past years, but we do not expect this to continue. As the Japanese recovery continues we expect unwinding of theses trade to start being in focus looking towards the end of 2006. Producer Prices input/output disappointed and we do not expect retail sales tonight of out of New Zealand to particular impressive either. Also next week's data event's should bring more selling interest to the NZD as kiwi trade balance and RBNZ cash rate decision should not be supportive.

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