DickT schrieb:
hm, das Ende des USD als Leitwährung würde ich erst ausrufen, wenn wichtige Rohstoffe in einer anderen Währung handelbar sind.
retep schrieb:
DJ unter 10000 ? (9922 = 61.8% Korrektur / bad case 9100 oder 8100)
Fisch schrieb:
Der Spaß geht wohl weiter?! Den ersten Ansturm hat die Unterstützung bei 1,3880 zwar abgewert aber das letzte Wort ist noch nicht gesprochen.
franz777 schrieb:
Heute war der setup "nur" 100-140 Punkte wert, ........
franz777 schrieb:
Heute war der setup "nur" 100-140 Punkte wert,
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The dollar's massive gains continue Tuesday, with the euro falling about four U.S. cents on the day as European banks, facing a seizure in money market funding, demand dollars.
"The European banks have to cut assets and liabilities, but the liabilities are in dollars, which is creating heavy dollar demand," said Hans Redeker, currency strategist at BNP Paribas in London.
17.00 Die Hoffnung, dass das US-Rettungspaket doch noch in dieser Woche verabschiedet wird, hat den Dollarkurs angeschoben. Der Euro fiel von 1,44 $ am Morgen auf etwa 1,41 $ .Quelle: FTD
29.11.2007, 23:46
von: retep
EUR/USD bei 1.60
USD/JPY bei 100
NEW YORK, July 30 /PRNewswire/ - CIBC (CM: TSX; NYSE) - Headline CPI inflation in the U.S. will hit six per cent within the next six months forcing the Federal Reserve Board to raise interest rates by at least 200 basis points, forecasts a new CIBC World Markets report.
The report notes that the American economy has not seen an inflation rate this high since 1990 - and that only lasted four months. "You've got to go back to 1982, in the midst of the stagflation that followed the second OPEC oil shock, to see the last time American inflation was clocked at that kind of pace for any sustained period," says Jeff Rubin, chief economist at CIBC World Markets.
"We expect that the Federal Reserve Board will raise interest rates no less than 200 basis points by the end of next year," adds Mr. Rubin. "History says we will be very lucky if they don't have to do more."
The complete CIBC World Markets report is available at: research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/sjul08.pdf
Perfect Trader schrieb:
Wenn Leute das so genau wissen, wieso sind sie dann Journalisten oder Analysten und nicht Trader auf eigene Rechnung?
29/11/07 20:45 [USD] A Deeper USD Sell-off?
[USD] 2008 should start off bad for the USD once again. However, the funding currencies will lead the way rather than the high yielders and the Euro. The US economy is being hit by three shocks in the shape of the housing market contraction, restricted credit supply and the third oil price shock. A recession is now a 40% probability and the Fed will have to take out insurance by cutting the Fed Funds rate to 3.5% in H1 2008.
Fears will likely grow that the asset deterioration could spread through US financial markets in 2008 and amplify the price discovery problem. In turn, this means restricted demand for US assets despite the low USD, helping prompt an extended undershoot of the USD. USD/JPY should be the leading edge with scope for a test of USD/JPY 100. Fears of a deeper US slowdown will likely prompt a further wave of carry trade unwinding, as financial market volatility remains elevated, increasing risk aversion. The high yielding end of the carry trades could also be hurt by concerns of recoupling between the US and OECD countries, with concerns growing that the US slowdown could be amplified by the USD decline, falling business confidence and weak equity markets. This should be most noticeable for Anglo Saxon countries that have peaking property markets, overstretched credit and too low household savings ratios. However, persistent BOJ intervention should arrive to stop a break of Y100, as Japanese domestic demand is too weak to take an exchange rate shock. EUR/USD should get to still more lofty levels and could trade around 1.55 in Q1, with a spike to 1.60 or above.
