Ich mag den Loonie überhaupt nicht für das kursfristige Traden. Ich habe mal versucht ihn Demo zu traden, und immer auf die Mütze bekommen.
Mitten in den schönsten Trends spiked der 20-40 Pips in die andere Richtung. Ok, im vergangenden Monat mag es vielleicht anders gewesen sein, fast 10% Wertzuwachs gegenüber den Dollar ist schon heftig. Im Daily könnte es heute einen Hammer geben, vielleicht Startschuss für ein Dollarcomback.

Jetzt muss schon das 19. Jahrhundert bemüht werden...

TORONTO -(Dow Jones)- The Canadian dollar in late trading Wednesday has extended its gains past the C$0.9450 area to move closer to the C$0.9422 level that marks its modern-day high against the U.S. dollar. The C$0.9422 level was established on August 20,1957, and represents the Canadian dollar's strongest level versus the U.S. dollar since the early 1860s, when the U.S. was still embroiled in its civil war and issues of legal tender in Canada were fixed to the gold standard.

TORONTO (Dow Jones)--The Canadian dollar has reached its record high against the U.S. dollar in late afternoon trading, according to the electronic trading system EBS.

Bald etwas Korrektur?

Und durch...

TORONTO (Dow Jones)--The Canadian dollar has reached its highest level since the currency was unpegged from the U.S. dollar in 1970, according to electronic trading system EBS.
The U.S. dollar has registered a low of C$0.9554, its lowest level since the Canadian government let the Canadian float in May 1970, according to EBS.
It broke below the earlier low of C$0.9576 reached in April 1974, according to the Bank of Canada, in midmorning trading.
The U.S. dollar subsequently rebounded to the C$0.9560 area.
Market watchers say the U.S. dollar's most recent decline against the rallying Canadian dollar has been driven by a renewed push higher in oil prices and broadly based weakness in the U.S. unit.

The Canadian dollar operated under a floating exchange rate from 1950 to 1962. The U.S. dollar reached an all-time low under the floating rate system in August 1957.
The currency was pegged a narrow band around a U.S. dollar level of C$1.0810 from 1962 until May 1970, when it was unpegged from the U.S. currency and the floating exchange rate regime was reintroduced. It has remained in place since then.

0.9588 Heute / Oktober 2007
0.9576 AllTimeLow / Freefloat / April 1974
0.9421 AllTimeLow / Neuzeit / August 1957

TORONTO (Dow Jones)--The Canadian dollar ended higher Friday, though it receded from more new 33-year highs set in overnight trading.
The U.S. dollar was trading at C$0.9625 at 3:47 p.m. EDT (1947 GMT), from C$0.9629 at 8:00 a.m. EDT (1200 GMT), and from C$0.9660 late Thursday.
The Canadian dollar overnight had penetrated as far as the C$0.9592 area, on the brink of the C$0.9576 level that marks it's high-water mark since the currency was again allowed to float freely in 1970 following a period of exchange-rate fixity.
It's overnight gains were the result of sustained bearish global sentiment toward the U.S. dollar coupled with the continued rise in world oil prices to new record highs above the $92 per barrel mark.
However, the Canadian dollar couldn't make any more headway in North American dealings in the absence of fresh catalysts for appreciation, and the Canadian unit sank back into a relatively narrow range trade above the C$0.9600 mark.
Traders said the Canadian dollar was also held back Friday by U.S. dollar buying from bottom-fishing corporate accounts, who generally require U.S. currency for everyday business needs regardless of broader foreign exchange market trends.
Nevertheless, the existing trend toward further global U.S. dollar weakness is seen continuing to support the Canadian dollar over the near-term, especially as currency players prepare for the likelihood of another U.S. rate cut on Wednesday and the possibility that the U.S. monetary authority will offer a fairly dim assessment of the U.S. economy in its rate statement.
"The bigger trend is still intact as far as favorable Canadian dollar moves," said C.J. Gavsie, director of corporate and institutional foreign exchange sales at the Bank of Montreal in Toronto. "Going into next week with the possibility of more Fed cuts, this is going to stay a negative U.S. dollar story."
The next levels of historical interest for the Canadian dollar lie at C$0.9576 from late April 1974, and C$0.9421, the currency's modern day all-time high achieved in August 1957.

Xenia schrieb:

"Bei Forex.com wird fast täglich der Bottom vorausgesagt."

autsch...haben die das noch 4 Monate seit damals durchgehalten?

Der Loonie nähert sich seinem AllTimeLow.
Wird er die 0.9650 knacken?


Sollte der EUR/USD über 1.45 gehen, werden wohl zahlreiche historische USD-Markierungen gelöscht.

The Canadian dollar has reached parity with its U.S. counterpart for the first time since November 1976.

Der Loonie hat den tiefsten Wert seit November 1976 erreicht und damit die Parität geschafft.
Damit ist es nicht mehr allzuweit zum Allzeittief (0.96 / April 1974).
Äusserst wahrscheinlich das dieser Level im Gleichklang mit 1.45 im EUR/USD erreicht wird.

Ich habe ja ein Konto bei Forex.com und da wird bei der "Strategie des Tages" fast täglich der Bottom vorausgesagt. Mit Fibos und Wellenzählungen wird da immer ein Widerstand herbeigerufen und täglich werden diese Marken überrannt.

Wird interessant zu sehen sein, ob der CAD weiterhin mit dem Crude korrelieren wird Es sieht ein wenig nach Schulter-Kopf-Schulter im Crude-Chart aus. Aber so richtig will ich nicht an fallende Ölpreise glauben. Fakt ist aber, dass 75% des Exports von Kanada in die Staaten laufen. Wenn der CAD immer teuer wird, wird die Tradingbilanz der Amis immer negativer, während Kanada einen größeren Überschuss produziert. Das geht aber nur solange, wie die Konjunktur in Amiland noch läuft und man bereit ist, Güter zu solchen Preisen in Kanada zu kaufen. Irgentwann wird den Amis der Import kanadischer Waren zu teuer, und dann ist es bald vorbei mit der Herrlichkeit der kanadischen Wirtschaft. Es würde jetzt sicherlich nicht long in USDCAD gehen, aber ich prophezeie mal einen Turnaround in den nächsten Wochen.

Original von Trader1984
xenia bist du noch usd/cad short?

gruss

@ Xenia

Seit Februar non-stop short geblieben oder zumindest immer wieder mal short?

Ich staune, daß der Trend überhaupt kein Ende findet.

Gruß
Bo10a

"Based on your observation of the dollar´s behavior against other currencies during the Iraq war, could you discuss the potential impacts to the dollar caused by a war with Iran?
If oil and gold rise, would there be a flight away from the dollar to more commodity-related currencies, like the CAD
(oil) and the Swiss Franc (gold)?
Or, would there be a run-up in the Euro or Yen, if they become seen as safe-haven currencies?

The same thing would happen , that happened back in 2003, when the States attacked Iraq. What happend , you
had an immediate fall on the Dollar and an immediate rise in the Euro. The assumption being, that the war would
be costly to the States, that would be Dollar negative and Euro possitive. So, were the States to attack Iran, the same
things would happen, so I don´t know if there is much more that I can say here."
??????

"The COT data showed that the Commercials traders were extremely long the CAD.
Would this not lead to subsequent drop in the USD/CAD pair?

The commercial traders are in a commulation phase. As the Candadian Dollar falls, they continue to buy and at a
certain moment in time , they Stopp buying and end up selling to the dumb money who get caught in a squeeze
and have to cover the positions and buy their positions from the commercial traders.
The commercial traders will continue to accumulate as the Canadian Dollar falls. And what we need to do is
keep evaluating our higher level charts like the weekly and daily charts to assertain when we are getting a
Turnaround in price."

bei devisen kann man das so stehen bei indices definitiv nicht aber wir reden ja über währunhgen.

gruss

xenia bist du noch usd/cad short?

gruss

herzlichen glückwunsch

edit: nur gut das der move nicht in die "falsche" richtung gelaufen ist.

Original von RS8
Da kratzt jemand gefährlich am Jahreshoch. Die Tiefs werden immer höher.
USD/CAD ist auf Tagesbasis im Aufwärtstrend.

50,100,200 EMA noch immer in perfect order, eigentlich könnte man ja noch einsteigen.

"If you are not participating in this pair folks, I´m totally confused and lost. You can´t convince me that a curreny that has been going up for six month
is gonna turn around any time soon. I see much higher prices here. This pair is on fire, and shows no signs of retreating any time soon. Even if you´ve been sitting on the sidelines dreaming and wondering why, get off the couch and grab a position or two."